M7.2 Earthquake Eastern Turkey (2)

The Earthquake Report have produced a helpful analysis and discussion of various aspects of the earthquake in eastern Turkey. The report written by the Centre for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) estimates the final death toll to be between 700-1000 people, and economic losses of US$ 500-1000million. Read the full article here... 

M7.2 Earthquake Eastern Turkey

Yesterday a Magniude 7.2 earhquake struck eastern Turkey, close to the Iranian border. Latest reports suggest about 200 dead, with that figure expected to rise ove the coming days. Many more people are injured and homeless, with the BBC reporting tens of thousands sleeping oudoors in freezing conditions. The Guardian reports that one hospital was significantly damaged, which will no doubt add to what is already a difficult rescue and recovery operation. They also report the difficulties in reaching more rural communities where damage is also expected to be high.

It is difficult to assess at this stage what secondary impacts of the earthquake there will be, in terms of landslides, fires and other triggered phenomena. The vulnerability of the communities in the region is significantly greater than it was prior to the earthquake, and aftershocks and other hazards (cold weather being a notable one) could lead to what is already a vey bad situation becoming much worse.

A comprehensive summary of the technical aspects of the earthquake, including details of the magnitude, location and earthquake history of Turkey can be found on the USGS website. Turkey is particularly vulnerable to large earthquakes, with many large cities close to major geological fault lines. Further information, updates and analysis will be posted on this blog as and when more news is available.

The Politics of Earthquakes

Let me draw your attention to a very interesting and thought-provoking article published by The Los Angeles Times, and written by Claire Berlinksi. The article, The Politics of Earthquakes, outlines how corruption, law enforcement and politics can significantly influence the impact of an earthquake on a major urban area. As Berlinksi writes, "seismic risk mitigation is the greatest urban policy challenge the world confronts today."

The article highlights the huge seismic risk to many of the world's largest cities - cities such as Tehran, Istanbul, Lima, Islamabad, Mexico City and Kathmandu. Cities which are undergoing rapid (and often uncontrolled) urbanisation. It is often stated that the way to reduce risk in these cities is to promote economic development - seismic-proofing a city costs money, and thus is not a possibility for less economically developed countries. 

However, the article points out the vast differences between Turkey and Chile - with similar GDP per capita. A massive M8.8 earthquake struck Chile in 2010, outside the city of Concepcion, leaving 521 dead. While any death toll is tragic, Chile's commendable preparedness and enforcement of building standards meant this was not significantly higher. Berlinkski, however reports that the situation in Turkey is very different. Despite their GDP per capita being very similar, preparedness is not at the same level. There is neither the same structural soundness of buildings, enforcement of building regulations or public awareness campaigns.

Reducing the impacts of earthquakes and other hazards, therefore, is not simply a case of economic development. There is also a huge need to tackle corruption, have good urban planning, enforce building regulation and lead better preparedness campaigns. There is a big responsibility on (a) national and regional governments to enforce regulation and coordinate preparedness measures, (b) international governments to lobby those countries at risk and promote safe urban expansion and disaster risk reduction, (c) local communities to respond willingly and effectively to government measures, not to encourage corruption and to take responsibility for preparing their household.