Lessons from China (1) - Introduction

As highlighted on the GfGD blog last week, I have recently returned from the First International Symposium on New Techniques for Geohazards Research and Management in the Gansu Province of China. This conference encompassed two days of presentation relating to landslides, debris flows and management strategies followed by four days in the field, travelling 1200km by road to visit sites of major landslide activity.

The beauty and magnitude of the landscapes there was enormous, ranging from magnificent loess terraces, to sharp limestone mountains and vast sediment-laden rivers. It was, however, the raw vulnerability of communities that impacted me most - The desperate need for improved science and engineering, but an even greater need for better communication, decision making, education and understanding of how to build resilience. 

Posts about various aspects of this trip, case studies and challenges, will come in the near future. In the meantime, here are a few photos taken from the trip. Look out on Wednesday for a video of the active landslide in the final picture below.

Landslide in loess terrain (Heifangtai, Gansu Province, China)
(c) Geology for Global Development, 2012

Construction of a large debris flow channel to reduce the risk to the community at the bottom of the valley. A deadly flow killed over 1500 people in 2010.
(Zhouqu, Gansu Province, China)
(c) Geology for Global Development, 2012

An active complex landslide - with failure occurring in both the loess material and bedrock
(Gansu Province, China)
(c) Geology for Global Development, 2012

Friday Photo (46) - Disaster Planning in the Solomon Islands

EVACUATION PLANS - SOLOMON ISLANDS
A list of evacuation sites along with maps detailing hazardous areas, on a notice board in Lemboni, Solomon Islands. We were told this is the only one of its type in the area.
Photo Courtesy of Greg Smith/David Cavell (University of Leicester), August 2012

University Project on Mt Merapi, Indonesia – Laura Westoby

Mount Merapi

Laura Westoby, aged 21, and currently studying for an MGeol degree at the University of Leicester will soon begin a four week placement in Indonesia. GfGD will be following and promoting her work over the next month! Laura writes...

"I will be travelling to Indonesia to undertake a placement with Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta, Java. As part of my MGeol degree at Leicester I have to complete a report in my 4th year. I have decided to focus this report on Mt Merapi and how it affects the local community. During my visit I hope to meet members of the community who have learnt to live with the danger of Mt Merapi and investigate processes that occur in the community before, during and after an eruption. I also hope to see how research is conducted at the University and how this information is relayed to the community. When I return to Leicester I will integrate my visit with a GIS project and a literature review to create my report.

This is a fantastic opportunity that will hopefully help me develop confidence when visiting new places, meeting new people and travelling alone. It will also introduce me to a side of geology that really interests me – the social aspect and one that hasn't cropped up very often throughout my degree. I will hopefully have the chance to learn some new skills whilst out there, such as how they monitor the volcano and field mapping, and also integrate myself with the local culture – I will be staying for a month!

Hopefully after my visit a connection with Gadjah Mada University will be established allowing more exchanges to take place in the future, both from the UK and also from Indonesia. With an exchange scheme established it will hopefully be easier for students to find funding in advance of a visit."

CAFOD/GfGD Placement - One Week Left To Apply!

There's just one week left to apply for this fantastic opportunity - all you need is a CV and a 250-word statement outlining why you would like this opportunity, and which weeks in September you are available!

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GfGD are delighted to announce a fantastic opportunity to spend one week this September in the Humanitarian Department of the international NGO CAFOD, based in London (download a placement information sheet here). In the space of a week you won’t have time to undertake a specific project or be applying lots of the geology you have learnt – but you will get a highly valuable opportunity to see how disaster risk reduction and emergency response operate within a large NGO and get a preliminary insight into the development sector. There will be plenty of opportunities for you to ask questions, and the opportunity to meet and talk about your experiences with GfGD’s Director.

This opportunity is open to all geoscience students in the UK who are currently coming to the end or have just finished the third or fourth year of their undergraduate course. We are currently not able to offer any funding to cover travel, food or living expenses during the week, and so advise all those applying that they will have to be able to cover these themselves. If you have family or friends in London that you can stay with for a week, this would be helpful. Individuals may be able to apply to their universities for financial support.

If you are interested in this placement, please send Joel Gill, GfGD Director (joel[at]gfgd[dot]org) a copy of your CV and a short personal statement (max. 250 words) outlining why you would like this opportunity and which weeks in September you are available. These will be reviewed and the successful candidate informed. DEADLINE FOR APPLICATIONS – MIDDAY, 23rd JULY 2012.

The successful candidate will be asked to (i) sign a Memorandum of Understanding, confirming that they will behave in a professional and appropriate manner, represent GfGD well and follow any guidelines set out by CAFOD and (ii) write a report for Geology for Global Development describing your work, what you learnt and how it benefited you.

If this placement is a success, we will hopefully have a second opportunity in Easter 2013 for those, who by that stage, will be in the third/fourth year of their undergraduate course.

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CAFOD is the official Catholic aid agency for England and Wales, working with partners in more than 40 countries across the world to bring hope, compassion and solidarity to communities that are poor, standing side-by-side with them to end poverty and injustice. CAFOD work with people of all faiths and none. Find out more - http://www.cafod.org.uk/.

2012 Bududa Landslide, Eastern Uganda

It was very sad to read last week of another large landslide on the slopes of Mount Elgon, in eastern Uganda. Heavy rains resulted in a large landslide sweeping away three villages, and burying an estimated 70 people.This area of Uganda has been hit by other landslides in recent years. In March 2010 an estimated 350+ people were buried by a large landslide, and in August 2011 a landslide killed an estimated 24 people.

These articles proposed a series of measures that should be considered in order to reduce the risk of further disasters: 

1) RELOCATION: A thorough and detailed examination of the Mount Elgon area to determine the areas at greatest risk of landslides. Those at greatest risk should be relocated. The Governments plans to relocate over half a million people have proved to be slow and unrealistic, but some relocation must occur to avoid further serious tragedy. 

2) INCREASED SUSTAINABLE FARMING: Working with communities to encourage a more sustainable farming method in the region, reducing deforestation, undercutting of slopes and increasing natural drainage. There are significant concerns that over-farming on these slopes is increasing soil erosion, reducing natural anchorage and thus continually increasing the vulnerability of these slopes. 

3) ENGINEERING SOLUTIONS: Improving draining of the slopes and toe weights at the foot of particularly vulnerable slopes to increase stability. In addition some instrumental measurement of the slope condition could provide valuable information.

A holistic, multi-faceted approach is essential, as all three of the above have their challenges and limitations. Many people do not want to be relocated, as the slopes of Mount Elgon have good, fertile soil. Compulsory relocation has its challenges, and so there must also be investment in training for farmers - relating to reducing soil erosion and deforestation, and improving drainage. Possible engineering investments should also be considered. Without some form of action the images that we have seen in the past week are likely to be seen again and again.

As Dave Petley has written on The Landslide Blog, this has not been the only landslide recently. There have been significant landslides in Bangladesh and India as well, with a number of fatalities, injuries and missing people.

CAFOD/GfGD Placement Opportunity

GfGD are delighted to announce a fantastic opportunity to spend one week this September in the Humanitarian Department of the international NGO CAFOD, based in London (download a placement information sheet here). In the space of a week you won’t have time to undertake a specific project or be applying lots of the geology you have learnt – but you will get a highly valuable opportunity to see how disaster risk reduction and emergency response operate within a large NGO and get a preliminary insight into the development sector. There will be plenty of opportunities for you to ask questions, and the opportunity to meet and talk about your experiences with GfGD’s Director.

This opportunity is open to all geoscience students in the UK who are currently coming to the end or have just finished the third or fourth year of their undergraduate course. We are currently not able to offer any funding to cover travel, food or living expenses during the week, and so advise all those applying that they will have to be able to cover these themselves. If you have family or friends in London that you can stay with for a week, this would be helpful. Individuals may be able to apply to their universities for financial support.

If you are interested in this placement, please send Joel Gill, GfGD Director (joel[at]gfgd[dot]org) a copy of your CV and a short personal statement (max. 250 words) outlining why you would like this opportunity and which weeks in September you are available. These will be reviewed and the successful candidate informed. DEADLINE FOR APPLICATIONS – MIDDAY, 23rd JULY 2012.

The successful candidate will be asked to (i) sign a Memorandum of Understanding, confirming that they will behave in a professional and appropriate manner, represent GfGD well and follow any guidelines set out by CAFOD and (ii) write a report for Geology for Global Development describing your work, what you learnt and how it benefited you.

If this placement is a success, we will hopefully have a second opportunity in Easter 2013 for those, who by that stage, will be in the third/fourth year of their undergraduate course.

---

CAFOD is the official Catholic aid agency for England and Wales, working with partners in more than 40 countries across the world to bring hope, compassion and solidarity to communities that are poor, standing side-by-side with them to end poverty and injustice. CAFOD work with people of all faiths and none. Find out more - http://www.cafod.org.uk/.

Alex Stubbings: Lessons Sorely Not Learnt, Or Heard Of, On A Geology Course

Alex Stubbings, GfGD Climate Change Correspondent, writes...

Recently I was reading an interesting book called The Vulnerability of Cities (Professor Mark Pelling, King’s College London) and would like to share a number of interesting lessons learnt based on a few quotes from Chapter 4 – Urban Governance and Disaster. Sharing these quotes presents GfGD readers with the opportunity to:

1) Have a discussion based on these extracts

2) Consider examples and lessons learnt, to enhance our capacity to provide information and knowledge

So, in a rather short entry here goes:

QUOTE 1 = “...The World Bank’s Disaster Management Facility (here and here), established in 1998 to provide a mechanism for feeding disaster prevention into development planning and to improve emergency response lending. The World Bank recognises that rapid urbanisationgreatly increases disaster risk and has sought to integrate disaster management within its urban development project lending.” Extract from p72

QUOTE 2 = “...one such scheme, which has met with some success, was the Maharashtra Emergency Earthquake Rehabilitation Programme, launched in response to the 1993 earthquake in the Indian State of Maharashtra, which damaged 230,000 houses in rural and small urban settlements. The programme gained financial support from the World Bank and has been managed by two national NGOs. It encouraged community participation at the village level, with beneficiaries consulted throughout the programme cycle, although the programme fell short of handing over decision making responsibility to local groups. Whilst project managers were initially sceptical of the community participation process, they later came to recognise it as an effective tool for dealing with difficulties that arose during implementation. It is reported that for grassroots actors, involvement in the reconstruction process helped in overcoming the trauma. The participatory process also opened many informal channels of communication between the people and the government, improving adaptation potential.”  Extract from p73

I think this next quote is very helpful. It goes to show what can be accomplished when numerous actors work together, and I’m sure could also be scaled-up, or used in other areas of disaster: urban, rural or geophysical in origin,

QUOTE 3 = “The media can be usefully brought to increase popular awareness of risk and of promoting preparedness. One particularly innovative use of the media comes from the Pan-American Health Organisation (PAHO)’s work in Central America, and soap operas as the most-listened-to programmes. PAHO has teamed up with NGOs to broadcast an educational soap opera before and during the hurricane season.” Extract from p75

And lastly a rather poignant and hard-hitting truth,

QUOTE 4 = “...Disasters are often linked to failures in the dissemination of information from expert or non-expert sources that could have provided a space for mitigation, preparation or evacuation...” Extract from p77

All extracts from: The Vulnerability of Cities. Natural Disasters and SocialResilience. Pelling,M. 2003. EARTHSCAN

What are peoples thought’s concerning these quotes? Are there any that you would like to add to, disagree with, or agree with? It would be interesting to hear what you have to say regarding this matter. Feel free to use this blog as a discussion forum (the quotes above are all numbered to make referring to them easier).

EGU Debate: The Role and Responsibilities of Geoscientists for Warning and Mitigation of Natural Disasters

Marco Dormino/UNDP

The European Geoscience Union’s General Assembly gathers over 11,000 people including students, academics, the media, those in industry and policy makers. Of these 11,000 there are a significant number of people working on various aspects of natural hazards, as seen in the broad range of talks and sessions in this division. Sessions focused on the physics and mechanics of a broad range of hazard events, forecasting and prediction, early warning tools, communication and geoethics and much more.

One session that took place was a ‘Great Debate’ on the role and responsibilities of geoscientists for warning and mitigation of natural disasters. The debate panel included representatives from insurance, academia and the EU Civil Protection Agency. This discussion was one that came up several times over my week, in various sessions, discussions and often over a glass or two of wine.

Many natural disasters can be prevented or the impacts significantly reduced, and geoscientists have a crucial role to play within this work. If geoscientists want to be most effective within this important field they must strengthen their communication skills, and think about how they can better ensure their knowledge and information is presented to the public, policy makers and politicians. But the question is not only how can it be presented, it is how can the information be presented well and effectively.

(Tanzania)
Communication to Local Stakeholders

It was frustrating, and at times very sad, to hear some of the comments in this debate. For example, a suggestion that geoscientists should make better use of open-source journals was put forward as a way to make sure our information gets through to the public. Whilst open-source is very helpful for many reasons, I don’t think that this is a solution at all to the great communication divide between scientists and the public. The language, format and style of scientific papers – be they open source or pay-to-access – is focused on communicating information to their peers. I have studied geology for over 10 years now and yet pick up many papers and struggle to understand what they are saying and how the research is relevant. Writing for open-source, or placing our technical papers on personal websites (which was also suggested) will give geoscientists access to more information. It will not, as is desperately needed, improve communication of this essential knowledge to other key stakeholders. We need to see a significant change in the mentality of scientists to incorporate, value and prize effective public engagement and outreach into their research projects. A paradigm shift from ‘come look at what we’re doing’ to ‘let us come to you and show you what we are doing’ is absolutely foundational to improved communication.

Barriers to Communication
(Adapted from Liverman, 2010 -
Geophysical Hazards:Minimizing Risk,
Maximizing Awareness [Ed. Tom Beer]) 

I believe we can increase the effectiveness of geoscientists’ contribution within disaster risk reduction (DRR) through a number of developments to geoscience courses. Whilst students are not by any means the only people working within DRR, we can help overcome some of the communication barriers (highlighted in the diagram to the left, adapted from Liverman, 2000) by changing the way graduates approach and enter into this work. Such developments include an overhaul of professional skills modules in undergraduate and postgraduate geoscience courses. These must include training in how to communicate to non-specialists or multi-disciplinary audiences, training in how to write a press release or general-interest article, and some basic teaching on issues such as community participation and sustainability.

Whilst I am not suggesting that these are the only steps that must be taken - they are important and will, I believe, enable those within the exciting field of geoscience to make a positive and greater contribution.

GfGD at EGU 2012

Next week the European Geoscience Union (EGU) will be hosting their General Assembly in Vienna, Austria. This annual gathering draws over 10,000 people from across the world with presentations and posters on a broad range of geoscience subjects.

Alongside a presentation on my PhD research into ‘Multi-Hazard Risk Analysis’ I will be giving a short presentation about the work of GfGD in training and equipping young geoscientists to communicate and do effective disaster risk reduction in the developing world. The talk will outline two gaps that I believe hinder the engagement of young geologists with this important area of work: (i) the lack of teaching and discussion opportunities on undergraduate and postgraduate geoscience courses regarding vulnerability and disaster risk reduction, and (ii) the lack of opportunities for students/recent graduates to gain experience in this sector.

GfGD is working to address these barriers through (i) the development of ‘soft skills’ – in particular communication skills and learning to share information to a wide range of groups, (ii) opportunities to engage with issues such as community vulnerability and education – through university seminars, and (iii) opportunities to gain experience in the sector. It is hoped that the opportunity to give this presentation will generate some interesting discussion amongst academics about their teaching schedules and course content, as well as raise the profile of GfGD to a wider audience.

For an excellent paper outlining the challenges and suggested solutions of science communication within disaster risk reduction, see D. Liverman (2010) Communicating Geological Hazards: Educating, Training, and Assisting Geoscientists in Communication Skills in T. Beer (ed.) Geophysical Hazards, International Year of Planet Earth.

Indian Ocean Earthquake: An Opportunity to Assess Disaster Risk Reduction Progress

Shake Map - USGS

Last week many of us will have been glued to our televisions and laptops, waiting to see what would follow the significant M8.6 earthquake off the coast of Indonesia. It was a relief to finally hear the reports that the earthquake was caused by horizontal plate movement (strike-slip) rather than vertical movement. Whilst there was still a small chance of a tsunami, including from submarine landslides, the ground rupture itself was much less likely to have triggered a tsunami. A significant aftershock followed, and many smaller ones. More aftershocks will occur over the coming weeks and months - with a possibility of ones up to an approximate magnitude of 7.6-7.8.

There are minimal reports of damage, but some consensus that there were five fatalities - some as a result of shock and heart attacks. There was clearly panic and fear across the region as the prospect of another devastating tsunami was comprehended. Most people's worse fears were not realised, although for the families of the five killed and others injured this is not necessarily the case.

Boxing Day Tsunami (Sumatra, 2004) - US Navy



It is hard to assess how well systems put into place after past earthquakes and tsunamis worked. There have been fewer reports than I imagined there would be on what this massive earthquake and the reponse by government and communities shows about the effectiveness of lessons learnt. Thankfully, the authorities in Indonesia and surrounding countries, rather than having a massive reconstruction to deal with, now have an opportunity to undertake a widespread assessment of what went well and what didn't go well. Authorities have had a large scale event they can now analyse and use to see how well the authorities communicated warnings (particularly to the most vulnerable people), and how well people responded to these warnings. They can then learn more important lessons and refine emergency procedures for the next time a huge quake hits the region. They can also constrain the most pressing needs within disaster risk reduction.

The event last week in the Indian Ocean was a tragedy for all those that lost family and friends. But from this tragedy is an important opportunity for the authorities to learn valuable and crucial lessons that could save many many lives in the future.

Further Reading

Wall Street Journal

BBC News Reports

Guardian Natural Disasters Report

Dan Sharpe: Contrasting Earthquakes in Christchurch and Haiti

Dan Sharpe, aged 19, is a second year geology student at the University of Leeds. With an avid interest in travelling, he has recently spent three and a half months in the wilderness of Northwest Canada and has also climbed the highest active volcano in the world. Currently fundraising for his participation in the Milan City Marathon in April, Dan spends most of his time out of lectures running or in the pool, or the pub of course.

Dan has a keen interest in development and will be joining the GfGD Blog writing team as a columnist - covering topics of interest to him - and hopefully many of you, enjoy!

Source: Flickr

2011 was a year of unparalleled numbers of disasters and the first six months saw over $265 billion in losses (study by Munich Re; a company that specialises in disaster insurance). On the 10th January floodwaters rushed through Queensland Australia, waters that killed 17 people and caused millions of dollars of damage; an event that carried on affecting lives through to February. This month also saw a devastating earthquake hit Christchurch New Zealand, and this 6.3 magnitude hazard was the largest of six earthquakes to strike the city on the 22nd February. 182 people lost their lives as a result of this event which, for such a large and repetitive series of earthquakes, is considerably lower than it may have been. In comparison to another hazard event in 2010, this low death toll is nothing short of remarkable. The earthquake that shook the capital of Haiti in January 2010 recorded 7.0 on the Richter Scale, but the death toll came in at over 300,000. Both earthquakes occurred at a relatively shallow depth increasing their severity, and both had an epicentre less than 25km from the cities so why was one so much more deadly?

Marco Dormino/UNDP

The slums surrounding Port-au-Prince, Haiti, are some of the worst in the world. Corrugated iron and wooden shacks are built on foundations of unconsolidated mud and rock. Liquefaction of these poor foundations means these temporary living spaces easily collapse, entombing the residents inside. All of the main buildings had inadequate building quality and no earthquake protection technologies, so many collapsed partially if not entirely including the three medical centres. In contrast, the buildings of Christchurch are soundly constructed and much more resistant to earthquakes. The hospital, although partially damaged, remained open throughout the event to treat the injured and although nearly a quarter of the residential buildings in the city centre are expected to be demolished, few collapsed in the event itself ensuring the survival of most residents.



In developing regions, response mechanisms need great improvement. NGOs and foreign governments can only do so much to repair the damage done by a natural disaster, so greater internal support and infrastructure is needed to respond rapidly to a hazardous event. For three days after the Haiti earthquake the only medical facility was the Argentine Military Field Hospital and survivors were left to search for victims buried in the rubble, alive or dead.



Geoscience Education (c) GfGD



The role of the geologist is to identify and to teach. With a better understanding of earthquakes in developing regions comes the opportunity to reduce risk through reducing vulnerability. Working with regional and governmental geologists to map areas of poor foundations and poorly consolidated ground can also inform risk reduction. The earthquake on the 10th January 2010 was different because of the geology itself. The shallow depth of the earthquake meant more energy reached Port-au-Prince and the geology and relief of the surrounding area ‘funnelled’ the waves down towards the city. With stakeholders having a better understanding of the regional geology, more preparation could have saved countless lives two years ago. A lack of geological analysis of this developing nation, however, left it blind to the problems it then faced. Installing a basic knowledge of geosciences in schools and government departments could help reduce risk before hazards even happen, surely a crucial way of building resilience and reducing vulnerability, thus bringing Haiti’s death toll closer to that experienced in Christchurch.

In the News: Brazil

Source: Vladimir Platonow/ABr

 Last year Brazil suffered from severe flooding and landslides, leading to what was described by many to be the 'worst natural disaster ever to befall Brazil.' Currently Brazil is back in rainy season and is again suffering from intense rain, flooding and landslides. Last week the intense rains caused a dam burst, leading to the evacuation of several thousand residents who faced the prospect of severe flooding as a result. Dam failure is always a very serious problem communities face, and the video shown within the above link hightlights why, with huge volumes of water being released.

One of the reasons the rainy season causes significant trouble in Brazil is beacuse of the poverty of many people. Poverty drives many people to inhabit the unsafe, unstable slopes surrounding cities such as Rio de Janeiro. Whilst many people know that the ground they live on is potentially lethal, they have little choice or choose to accept the risk in order to be closer to the main city, bringing food and a potential livelihood. 

Over the past year Brazil has invested significantly in measures to prepare for this year's rainy season and reduce the impacts of the rainy season - including better monitoring, forecasting and emergency evacuation procedures. The effectiveness of these measures will be evident over the coming weeks and months. In order to effectively reduce disaster risk in this area the authorities need to combine effective science and engineering with sustainable social development, community participatory approaches and effective governance and town emergency planning. Whilst it is not an easy task, it is encouraging to see how Brazil has invested in these areas over the past year - an investment which could save many lives in future rainy seasons.

Update: Since writing this post mudslides have occurred, killing 12 people (to date) - more information can be found on the BBC Website,

International Day for Disaster Reduction 2011

Today is the International Day for Disaster Reduction. Read more about the United Nations plans to mark this day on their website.

One of the key things this blog posts about is 'Disaster Risk Reduction' - reducing vulnerabiity and building resilence to natural hazards in order to reduce the risk of a major disaster. Reducing vulnerability comes through a range of things - including education, decreasing poverty, building good governance, effective town planning and many other things. One key area geologists work to reduce vulnerability is through increasing our knowledge and understanding of geohazards - how they work and when they occur, and when they have occurred historically what was the intensity of the event. GfGD has written many posts about different aspects of disaster risk reduction - have a look through our archives to read more.

L'Aquila Earthquake (2009) - The Trial Begins...

As reported a while ago, a number of scientists are to face trial in Italy for failing to correctly evaluate the risk of the L'Aquila earthquake in Italy (2009) and communicate this to the public. They are to be charged with manslaughter. The L'Aquila earthquake, measuring 6.3 on the Moment Magnitude scale, and killing over three hundred people was Italy's deadliest quake in recent times. 

This week their trial begins, and many scientists involved in hazard assessment will be watching with a keen interest and much anticipation. BBC Newsnight have produced an article discussing the trial and there is also an interesting article on Nature News by Willy Aspinall, former chief scientist at the Montserrat Volcano Observatory in the Caribbean. He highlights one of the main dangers of this trial - that experienced, knowledgeable and professionals in the field will be much more reluctant to give advice shaping policy and decisions then before - essentially making life even more difficult for town planners etc.

As the trial progresses we will continue to report the latest developments.

Resources: Emergency Events Database

The Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT)  is available free online, and is a useful resource for many involved in humanitarian work. As outlined on their website:

"The main objective of the database is to serve the purposes of humanitarian action at national and international levels. It is an initiative aimed to rationalize decision making for disaster preparedness, as well as providing an objective base for vulnerability assessment and priority setting.

EM-DAT contains core data on the occurrence and effects of over 18,000 mass disasters in the world from 1900 to present. The database is compiled from various sources, including UN agencies, non-governmental organisations, insurance companies, research institutes and press agencies."

The database contains records of many geological and atmospherical hazards, as well as other hazards (disease, technological etc). It has data for all continents, and spans over 110 years. Analysis of data for specific regions and areas may produce interesting trends useful for disaster preparedness.  

Earthquake Risk: Central Asia

Central Asia (Source: Wikipedia)

This week a Magnitude 6.1 earthquake struck the Ferghana Valley region of Central Asia, killing 13 people in Uzbekistan and injuring many others. Areas in neighbouring Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan also reported damage. The Ferghana Valley region is one of the most densely populated regions of Central Asia, and one of the most seismically active regions in the world. This combination of seismic hazard and dense population means there is a significant risk of a serious disaster in this area. Historically there have been significant earthquakes in most of the Central Asian nation's capital cities - causing significant damage and leaving many homeless.

The extent of any future disaster will depend on the vulnerability of communities. For example in 2010 large earthquakes struck both Haiti and Chile - and yet the death toll in Chile was substantially lower than in Haiti (despite the Chilean earthquake being significantly stronger). This was as a result of high vulnerability in Haiti compared to Chile, which is much better prepared for earthquakes, has better response mechanisms in place and better quality of buildings. Vulnerability in many cities in Central Asia is high - with dense population, poor earthquake education, poor governmental response mechanisms and low building standards. When this is coupled with the serious probability of hazard in the area (an estimate stated in 1996 suggested there was a 40% chance that a Magnitude 9.0 earthquake will hit Central Asia within 20 years) this area must be a priority area for disaster risk reduction programmes. 

Sarez Lake (Source: Wikipedia)

In addition to the risk to large cities in the region, there is also the possibility of a major multi-hazard event in the border regions/Ferghana Valley. If an earthquake were to cause failure of the landslide formed Sarez Lake - it could lead to catastrophic flooding in the terrain immediately below the lake. This series of events could significantly effect millions of people.

Possible Action?

There is an urgent need for a widespread disaster risk reduction programme in this region. There should be political engagement at the national and regional level, and a building up of the institutional capacity of country's disaster response and preparedness departments (including an examination of insurance against disaster). There should be a strengthening of public education, through the engagement of civil society organisations, the school system and national advertising campaigns. In the long-term there should be a major review of construction quality in the region to reduce the impacts of disasters. 

Further Reading

- UNISDR - Mitigating the Adverse Financial Effects of Natural Hazards on the Economies of Central Asia

- UNISDR - Central Asia & Caucasus Disaster Risk Management Initiative (Some good profiles on individual countries, as well as a look at cross-border issues) 

- UNISDR - A guide to community based disaster risk reduction in Central Asia (English & Russian)

Resources: Global Risk Data Platform

The Global Assessment Report 2011 website is hosting an interesting interactive tool for those working on disaster risk reduction and analysis of geological and atmospheric hazards. The Global Risk Data Platform allows you to zoom to anywhere in the world and see overlay maps for actual events, hazard probabilities, and risk probabilities. Events outlined, include hazards such as landslides, earthquakes, volcanic events, fires, floods and droughts (although they are not all available for all aspects of the program). It also allows maps to be printed and e-mailed, and data to be downloaded and put into GIS programs.

The tool aims to share spatial data information on risk from natural hazards. A first glance evaluation suggests it would be useful for giving an overall look at regions of countries, and help development professionals understand some of the risks posed to an area. Its limitations are the resolution at which data can be provided, and the 'single-hazard' approach it takes rather than a 'multi-hazard' approach. There is a 'multiple risk' map, although it is unclear how this is calculated, does not incorporate some major hazards etc.  

Landslide Risk in Chile: Produced on Global Risk Data Platform

Despite its limitations, I'd definitely recommend people explore this tool and see if is beneficial to them as a first stage review of an area, before more detailed hazard analysis is done. I look forward to exploring its potential in time, and seeing what it can produce. 

Resources: Tsunami Education

A collaboration of agencies, including the United States Geological Survey and UNESCO/IOC-NOAA International Tsunami Information Centre have produced a helpful video outlining the basics of tsunami's and how to protect yourself. The video, available on Youtube, could potentially be a useful resource in educating vulnerable communities about the actions to take in the event of a tsunami warning. For some communities there is often very little warning and so a rapid response is crucial. Effective planning and education such as understanding the links between earthquakes and tsunamis can give vital extra time. Simple steps such as clear street signs and identifying and practicing using routes to get inland and upland are also vital steps.

Other helpful Tsunami Education resources can be found at...

- National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Education Links

- Global Education - Tsunami Education Kit

Resources: The Landslide Blog

The American Geophysical Union host a number of blogs, and one key blog I highly recommend is Professor Dave Petley's Landslide Blog. This blog features regular articles and photos of landslide activity across the world. Professor Petley posts reports of work he is conducting himself (e.g. in Attabad, Pakistan) and reports of landslide activity in the news - such as his most recent post (to date) looking at the Malaysian landslide that hit an orphanage. 

Landslides are a huge problem in many countries around the world, and impact a number of developing countries (for example, I wrote a post a while back on the Bududa Landslide in Uganda). Understanding more of the science behind them, the risks they pose, and measures that can sometimes be taken to reduce their frequency and impact has a very important role in global development, and disaster risk reduction. Professor Petley writes with clarity and accessibility - and makes the study of slope stability very interesting. 

Further Reading:

American Geophysical Union

Landslide in Malaysia 2011

British Geological Survey - Landslides Page

Panama: Multi-Hazard Case Study

A very interesting multi-hazard case study in Panama is reported on the website of the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute. Heavy tropical storms in December 2010 resulted in increased groundwater levels, higher pore fluid pressures, and thus slope instability... meaning there was significant landslide activity. This landslide activity resulted in large amounts of sediment entering the water system, and causing the water treatment plant of Panama City to be closed down for almost a month. The impacts of this lack of clean drinking water can vary from increases in disease, illness and maybe even death. This interaction of several factors resulted in a number of negative impacts to Panama City.

A number of measures could be taken to prevent this sequence of events. Avoiding deforestation, in order to prevent erosion would be one measure to reduce the probability of landslides. Ensuring adequate drainage in slopes would also reduce the risk. This sequence of events should also inform and educate emergency planners - helping them understand the vulnerability of their water supply system. Back-up systems should be in place, bottled water stockpiled, and potentially boreholes drilled in key locations such as hospitals and schools.