Crisis in the Horn of Africa (2) - Long-Term Development

As outlined in Part 1 of this post, there are urgent and immediate needs in the Horn of Africa as millions face starvation and a humanitarian crisis. However there must also be discussion about how to avoid this level of crisis in the future, how to reduce and mitigate the hazard, reduce vulnerability and increase resilience. This post does not aim to provide a comprehensive solution to the problem, but contribute to the discussion with some of the key roles geologists can play in bringing long-term development.

(1) Causes of the Crisis 

There are a number of reports about this hazard being a result of climate change, others say it is related to corruption and poor governance, and others that it is to do with conflict. 

Conflict and poor governance in the region has most certainly increased vulnerability to hazards. For example, conflict in Somalia has resulted in a significant number of people displaced, and governance in regions of Somalia is virtually non-existent. Limited humanitarian access has also exacerbated the problem. Vulnerability due to poor economic development also plays a role, with limited infrastructure, problems with trade and a lack of good irrigation systems using groundwater resources. 

In terms of climate change, GfGD is wary about attributing anything and everything to human induced climate change without sufficient evidence. The Guardian, perhaps irresponsibly, wrote an article with the title "Drought in East Africa the Result of Climate Change and Conflict" while stating in the actual text that 'how far the current conditions.... can be attributed to climate change is not clear." The Guardian state that the latest IPCC report suggests this region will become wetter, where as other research suggests it may increase drought in the region. A joint publication by the Overseas Development Institute and British Geological Survey (Calow & MacDonald, 2009) draws some conclusions about the potential effects of climate change on Africa. These conclusions are that: -

• Average temperatures are likely to increase.
• Annual rainfall is likely to decrease in Sub-Saharan Africa and the northern Sahara and increase in the Ethiopian highlands - although these predictions are much harder to make.
• Rainfall is likely to become increasingly unpredictable in terms of both intensity and duration, with increases in the frequency of extreme events (droughts and floods).

The report does highlight however, that it is much easier to model future temperature changes than rainfall. It is therefore possible that there are links between the crisis in East Africa and a changing climate, though I find it difficult to justify the title of The Guardian's article, and an outright statement that this IS as a result of climate change. 

Finally, there is a wider question about food security, access to markets, infrastructure and agricultural development. Harvests have failed because of lack of rainfall. Farmers used to know when the rain would come, and could plan accordingly - however two years of unpredictable and low rainfall has resulted in failed harvests. When food is grown, there is difficulties in getting it to markets - lack of infrastructure means that people are restricted to very local markets.     

  

In conclusion, the crisis can not be pinned upon one factor or another - it is a complex situation, which requires a number of solutions in order to avoid the repeated and cyclic crisis in this region.

(2) Reducing Vulnerability

I am cautious about using the word 'solutions' - but there are a number of things that can be done to reduce the vulnerability of people and increase their resilience. First and foremost must be a real drive to bring long-term peace to the region, build effective and good government and end corruption that robs the people of the long-term economic development they deserve. There must also be investment in infrastructure, agricultural solutions and improved access to groundwater - there is a role for geologists in all of these areas, working alongside many other professionals and stakeholders.

  (a) Infrastructure - As outlined in an earlier post, geologists play an important role in infrastructure, especially within transport networks (roads, airstrips, railways etc). Improvements in infrastructure in these countries can ensure products get to market as well as the distribution of food to more rural and pastoral areas. Infrastructure is an expensive development project, but essential to improving economic growth and development in the region. 

  (b) Agriculture - In terms of agriculture, there are a number of ways in which geologists can contribute to problems of soil erosion, loss of soil moisture content and lack of essential minerals in the soil. Natural rock resources can be used to provide essential nutrients to the soils, which are often deficient in phosphorous. Many rocks contain phosphorous minerals, which can be added to the soil as a local fertiliser. The addition of rocks such as scoria (or pumice) can help improve the soil's ability to retain water. This rock reduces evaporation from the soil, while allowing water to permeate through into the soil. Preliminary experiments in Ethiopia found this to improve crop yields significantly. Scoria on the soil surface may also offer protection from soil erosion by wind and rain, retaining the fertile topsoil.

  (c) Water Resources - Drilling boreholes to access groundwater is expensive, however in times of drought it is groundwater that proves to be most reliable - often offering access to clean and safe water throughout the year. Reluctance to use groundwater and drill boreholes is often as a result of the expense involved, and concerns that they are not sustainable, involving advanced technology. Indeed, there are too many boreholes that are disused and broken. Groundwater is, however, a significant resource - and with the right infrastructure can be very important to development and long-term food security. It can be used in irrigation systems, for human drinking, and for livestock to drink - which, as mentioned previously, are a crucial asset to many people.     

For further information on the short-term emergency requirements please see the links at the end of this previous post. 

Critical Situation in the Horn of Africa: Worst Drought for 60 years

The horn of Africa (Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya etc) has suffered from two very poor rainy seasons, resulting in poor harvests, reduced access to already poor water supplies and therefore millions of people needing humanitarian assistance. Food insecurity in this region is complicated by difficult access for humanitarian workers to large areas of conflict-ridden state Somalia. Relief Web has published an excellent and helpful PDF by UNOCHA outlining the situation in the region. With vast areas of the region in a critical state, one level short of catastophe/famine there is an urgent need for humanitarian assistance. 

Horn of Africa: On the brink of critical famine?

Rainy seasons will always fluctuate, and we can expect more poor rainy seasons in the future. In order to prevent similar crisis situations and serious famine there needs to be an investment in infrastructure - so food can be transported easily around the country to those places in severe need. The UNOCHA states that the situation in the coastal Somalian capital of Mogadishu is poor/serious compared to critical for agro-pastoral areas in other parts of Somalia. The ease of importing food into a coastal town is much easier than other parts of the country. In Ethiopia engineering geologists have been working on roads to connect more rural parts of the country with bigger towns, which will hopefully play an important role in helping food security in the country. In addition to infrastructure development, improvements in access to and management of groundwater resources is essential for irrigation, food security and health.

Development in this region must take a two-fold approach - with rapid and urgent investment in food security. UNOCHA currently estimates that it only has around 30-50% of the funding needed. In addition a long-term development plan including more investment in infrastructure and irrigation systems must be adopted to minimise the effects of poor rainy seasons in the future.

Key Themes: Infrastructure

Tanzania: Roads Agency

The 'Key Themes' posts are a series of short articles outlining the role that geologists have in various aspects of global development.

The sixth ‘Key Theme’ in which geologists have a significant role to play in reducing poverty, contributing to sustainable international development and improving lives is in the development of infrastructure. Physical infrastructure includes those things needed for society or enterprise to grow and flourish, and the economy to grow. It includes transport networks such as roads, airports and dockyards; energy networks such as power grids and pipelines; telecommunications networks; solid waste management and water management.

A joint report by the French Development Agency and World Bank has outlined the significant investment required in African infrastructure alone… a huge £93million per year, of which a third is for maintenance of existing infrastructure. This figure includes the cost of transport, power, water and communications networks. The physical geography of Africa, remoteness of communities and lack of competition means that there are significant logistical and financial challenges to developing infrastructure.

Infrastructure, however, is responsible for a significant proportion of Africa’s economic growth over recent years. From 1990-2005 it is believed that more than a half of the economic growth seen was as a result of investment in infrastructure, and the World Bank suggests that this percentage could grow further. The Millennium Development Goals suggest that economic growth of developing countries should be around 7% per year, figures were around 5% a year before the current global financial crisis. Continued investment in infrastructure could help countries move towards this 7% per year growth target.

Infrastructure is also hugely significant for human development. Power networks can lead to improvements in business, health and education. Safe and clean water supplies and sanitation save time, money spent on healthcare and prevent diseases. Transport networks improve businesses, increase markets and improve the flow of goods and food across the country. 

The table below (click to enlarge), from the UN Africa Working Group (2007) show the significant role various aspects of infrastructure have on the Millennium Development Goals.

What role do geologists have to play in this sector?

Geologists have a significant role in various aspects of infrastructure development as outlined below:

Tanzania: Road
Construction

Transport Networks:  Engineering geologists are involved in investigating the ground conditions, identifying hazards and determining routes and locations for major transport networks such as roads, airports, dockyards and canals. Investigations of ground conditions help effective and sustainable design of structures and components of structures (for example foundations, slopes etc) ensuring networks are safe and long lasting. The identification of hazards such as slope stability, seismic risk, contamination of groundwater and subsidence are carefully considered and analysed, and appropriate measures are put into place to mitigate against failure. Design of routes is based on the results of geological, geotechnical and geomorphological mapping. Geologists can also play a crucial role in the design and construction of tunnels, and the identification of local raw materials to reduce the cost and environmental impact of the structure.

Energy Networks:  Geologists play an important role in the design of pipeline routes, ensuring hazards such as subsidence; seismic hazards and unstable slopes are identified. Foundation design and ground investigation for large power stations, environmental impact assessments for hydroelectric schemes and design of renewable resources such as geothermal power can also be addressed by those with a geoscience background.

Communications Networks:  Issues such as foundation design and geohazards assessment are crucial for many aspects of telecommunications networks – including radio-masts, and undersea fibre-optic cables, as well as large buildings and structures.

Solid Waste Management:  Design of landfill systems to prevent leaching of material into potable groundwater, and the build up of explosive gases. Identification of geologically stable sites for hazardous waste.

Tanzania: Water Pipe

Water & Wastewater Management:  As outlined in a previous ‘Key Theme’ discussing water resources, geologists have a significant role in the location, extraction and management of groundwater. In addition to the points raised in this Key Theme, there are additional roles for geologists with regards to the infrastructure required for provision of water and sanitation systems – in particular with regards to urban areas. The design of sewer systems requires extensive geological and engineering knowledge, as does the design of water pipelines (for those reasons set out for the design of energy pipeline routes).