Newswatch: May 2012

A range of stories were in the media over the weekend, including the sad news of a magnitude 6 earthquake in Italy. Here's a brief round-up:

Italian Earthquake

At least seven people have been killed and numerous buildings destroyed after a M6 earthquake and aftershocks in northern Italy.

Waste Disposal in the Maldives

A shocking video shows the nature of waste disposal in the tourist hotspot of the Maldives. The video raises a number of questions about the environmental impact of tourism, and the importance of sustainable, effective waste disposal

US Boost for Food Security 

The US have announced a major investment in food security in Africa, and the topic is being discussed at the G8 meeting. Although we've not analysed the details of this investment, it is an important step to see this issue receiving such high-profile attention.

Malnutrition in Niger

On the subject of food security, serious malnutrition is being reported in the African nation of Niger. Reports suggest around six million people there are affected with numerous more across Western Africa.

Alex Stubbings: On the Ground in Dhaka, September 18th 2011.

Alex Stubbings, GfGD Blog Climate Change Correspondent, writes...

During September to December 2011 I was fortunate enough to undertake an internship in Bangladesh, at the same time North India/Nepal was hit by a powerful earthquake. Naturally, what does Bangladesh have to do with earthquakes? Surprisingly quite a lot.

On September 18th 2011 there was a powerful Earthquake, M 6.9, in Nepal/ NE India, the so-called Sikkim Earthquake. Here’s a link to the Dhaka, English, broadsheet that should paint a richer picture of events on the ground in the region.

Drawing on my own anecdotal experience of the event I want to talk about earthquakes in this highly vulnerable area.

I've never been anywhere before that experiences earthquakes greater than M5.0, so this was new for me. Nevertheless, as I was walking around Dhaka on that day I had no idea that this earthquake had struck. The only tell-tale signs that one had were the masses of people pouring onto the streets of Gulshan Avenue, in the heart of one of the wealthiest neighbourhoods in Dhaka.

Shopping Centre, Dhaka (Source)

Gulshan Avenue is comprised of many tower blocks, some over 20 storeys high. When I saw the people on the streets I still had no idea that an earthquake had struck several hundred kilometres away. However, within ten minutes I received a text from a friend asking if I was OK. That’s when I found out what had happened.

Bangladesh Mega-Delta
(NordNordWest/Wikipedia)
 See here for licence details

As this video shows Bangladesh is particularly vulnerable to earthquakes, due in part to the Himalayan uplift and being situated on unconsolidated sediment. The situation is made far worse for Bangladesh because it is one of the world’s largest mega-deltas, something which has only just started to register with me. The fact that liquefaction [when stable saturated sediment becomes unstable and begins to flow] can occur quite easily in unconsolidated sediments makes the vulnerability of this Less Developed Country (LDC) all the more pressing. Clearly policy makers need to make better contingencies for this. This will therefore necessitate improved disaster risk reduction practices across the spectrum of policy-society. These pictures, again from the Daily Star, document some of the destruction wrought by the earthquake in Nepal. What would concern me, as a geoscientist in the region or as a policy maker, is that these scenes could quite literally be repeated in Dhaka, and elsewhere in Bangladesh.

A good question to ask is why? Simply put, this is down to the old adage “earthquakes don’t kill people buildings do”. Unfortunately, as this article demonstrates this is quite literally the case in Bangladesh, but also in other countries too. Fortunately though I’ve not heard of any buildings collapsing yet, and hopefully they won’t. Nevertheless, until planning regulations are tightened up, uncontrolled urbanisation is curbed and appropriate building codes applied to make infrastructure more resilient, or earthquake proof, there is always the possibility that the worst case scenario could occur, which would be a humanitarian disaster of epic proportions.

Therefore, as geologists, and as a community we really need to engage with NGOs, CBOs (community based organisations) and INGOs (international non-governmental organisations), and assist them in formulating sufficiently robust, flexible and fair policy documents that can be scrutinised or presented to cabinets, or appropriate governmental ministers. Mobilising our intellectual capital and working with a local NGO, is indeed a project we here at GfGD are all capable of and could undertake!

Indian Ocean Earthquake: An Opportunity to Assess Disaster Risk Reduction Progress

Shake Map - USGS

Last week many of us will have been glued to our televisions and laptops, waiting to see what would follow the significant M8.6 earthquake off the coast of Indonesia. It was a relief to finally hear the reports that the earthquake was caused by horizontal plate movement (strike-slip) rather than vertical movement. Whilst there was still a small chance of a tsunami, including from submarine landslides, the ground rupture itself was much less likely to have triggered a tsunami. A significant aftershock followed, and many smaller ones. More aftershocks will occur over the coming weeks and months - with a possibility of ones up to an approximate magnitude of 7.6-7.8.

There are minimal reports of damage, but some consensus that there were five fatalities - some as a result of shock and heart attacks. There was clearly panic and fear across the region as the prospect of another devastating tsunami was comprehended. Most people's worse fears were not realised, although for the families of the five killed and others injured this is not necessarily the case.

Boxing Day Tsunami (Sumatra, 2004) - US Navy



It is hard to assess how well systems put into place after past earthquakes and tsunamis worked. There have been fewer reports than I imagined there would be on what this massive earthquake and the reponse by government and communities shows about the effectiveness of lessons learnt. Thankfully, the authorities in Indonesia and surrounding countries, rather than having a massive reconstruction to deal with, now have an opportunity to undertake a widespread assessment of what went well and what didn't go well. Authorities have had a large scale event they can now analyse and use to see how well the authorities communicated warnings (particularly to the most vulnerable people), and how well people responded to these warnings. They can then learn more important lessons and refine emergency procedures for the next time a huge quake hits the region. They can also constrain the most pressing needs within disaster risk reduction.

The event last week in the Indian Ocean was a tragedy for all those that lost family and friends. But from this tragedy is an important opportunity for the authorities to learn valuable and crucial lessons that could save many many lives in the future.

Further Reading

Wall Street Journal

BBC News Reports

Guardian Natural Disasters Report

Dan Sharpe: Contrasting Earthquakes in Christchurch and Haiti

Dan Sharpe, aged 19, is a second year geology student at the University of Leeds. With an avid interest in travelling, he has recently spent three and a half months in the wilderness of Northwest Canada and has also climbed the highest active volcano in the world. Currently fundraising for his participation in the Milan City Marathon in April, Dan spends most of his time out of lectures running or in the pool, or the pub of course.

Dan has a keen interest in development and will be joining the GfGD Blog writing team as a columnist - covering topics of interest to him - and hopefully many of you, enjoy!

Source: Flickr

2011 was a year of unparalleled numbers of disasters and the first six months saw over $265 billion in losses (study by Munich Re; a company that specialises in disaster insurance). On the 10th January floodwaters rushed through Queensland Australia, waters that killed 17 people and caused millions of dollars of damage; an event that carried on affecting lives through to February. This month also saw a devastating earthquake hit Christchurch New Zealand, and this 6.3 magnitude hazard was the largest of six earthquakes to strike the city on the 22nd February. 182 people lost their lives as a result of this event which, for such a large and repetitive series of earthquakes, is considerably lower than it may have been. In comparison to another hazard event in 2010, this low death toll is nothing short of remarkable. The earthquake that shook the capital of Haiti in January 2010 recorded 7.0 on the Richter Scale, but the death toll came in at over 300,000. Both earthquakes occurred at a relatively shallow depth increasing their severity, and both had an epicentre less than 25km from the cities so why was one so much more deadly?

Marco Dormino/UNDP

The slums surrounding Port-au-Prince, Haiti, are some of the worst in the world. Corrugated iron and wooden shacks are built on foundations of unconsolidated mud and rock. Liquefaction of these poor foundations means these temporary living spaces easily collapse, entombing the residents inside. All of the main buildings had inadequate building quality and no earthquake protection technologies, so many collapsed partially if not entirely including the three medical centres. In contrast, the buildings of Christchurch are soundly constructed and much more resistant to earthquakes. The hospital, although partially damaged, remained open throughout the event to treat the injured and although nearly a quarter of the residential buildings in the city centre are expected to be demolished, few collapsed in the event itself ensuring the survival of most residents.



In developing regions, response mechanisms need great improvement. NGOs and foreign governments can only do so much to repair the damage done by a natural disaster, so greater internal support and infrastructure is needed to respond rapidly to a hazardous event. For three days after the Haiti earthquake the only medical facility was the Argentine Military Field Hospital and survivors were left to search for victims buried in the rubble, alive or dead.



Geoscience Education (c) GfGD



The role of the geologist is to identify and to teach. With a better understanding of earthquakes in developing regions comes the opportunity to reduce risk through reducing vulnerability. Working with regional and governmental geologists to map areas of poor foundations and poorly consolidated ground can also inform risk reduction. The earthquake on the 10th January 2010 was different because of the geology itself. The shallow depth of the earthquake meant more energy reached Port-au-Prince and the geology and relief of the surrounding area ‘funnelled’ the waves down towards the city. With stakeholders having a better understanding of the regional geology, more preparation could have saved countless lives two years ago. A lack of geological analysis of this developing nation, however, left it blind to the problems it then faced. Installing a basic knowledge of geosciences in schools and government departments could help reduce risk before hazards even happen, surely a crucial way of building resilience and reducing vulnerability, thus bringing Haiti’s death toll closer to that experienced in Christchurch.

Guest Blog: Earthquake Education in Central Asia

Claire Fyson is in her fourth year at the University of Cambridge, reading Natural Sciences and specialising in Geology. Last year she became one of GfGD's first University Ambassadors - leading the GfGD Cambridge group with co-student Tim Middleton. Claire has kindly written a very interesting guest blog following a GfGD seminar they organised in Cambridge.



Solmaz Mohadjer

 Having been taught bits and pieces about the way the Earth works since I started secondary school, I’ve never quite realised how lucky I’ve been. Natural hazards such as tornadoes, volcanic eruptions, and earthquakes have been explained to me in great detail - I’ve even learnt what to do in the event of such disasters. Sadly, it is often the people who live in regions prone to earthquakes and other natural hazards that are the least informed and prepared to respond appropriately. In the first of our Geology for Global Development seminars at the University of Cambridge, Solmaz Mohadjer from the ParsQuake Project highlighted how little the people of Central Asia know about the earthquakes that they experience on a regular basis. She also talked about how to tackle the problem – how a basic understanding of Earth sciences and local geohazards can save lives if disseminated and used in the right way.

The region of Central Asia is experiencing deformation as a result of the collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates. Unfortunately, regions with the highest strain rates are often heavily populated. As part of the fieldwork for her Masters in geophysics, Solmaz spoke to the locals to find out how much they knew about earthquakes and earthquake preparedness. For a variety of reasons, many people in the region find it difficult to reconcile their cultural and religious beliefs with the need to prepare for earthquakes. For example, some people in Pakistan believe earthquakes are divine punishments for sins. By contrast in Tajikistan, some believe that living or dying in an earthquake is part of a divine plan, and therefore, preparing for earthquakes strikes them as pointless. This seems akin to the evolution debate in the US, but in this case the consequences are considerably greater: – people’s lives are at risk.

Why does the earth shake?

Of the students who participated in Solmaz’s research, none knew how to prepare for an earthquake, and yet all had felt at least one in their lifetime. The locals had become so accustomed to the tremors that two earthquakes felt by Solmaz during her first night in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, went un-noticed by her students and neighbours. When asked how they dealt with earthquakes, 37% of her students took no action – a worrying statistic given how dangerous the consequences of doing nothing might be. As for the mechanism behind earthquakes, a common explanation is that there is a giant bull inside the Earth that shakes its head when a mosquito lands on it.

Using a wooden block model

Here’s where the geologists come in. In response to her research, Solmaz created a 12-step education plan. This included simple but ingenious experiments covering topics such as the unpredictability of motions along faults (using wooden block models, see picture), liquefaction (using sand and water) and how to build an earthquake-resistant wall (using craft sticks). It is easy to see how such a programme could inspire locals to put some of their new knowledge into action.

Teachers Without Borders was asked to address a similar knowledge gap in the education system in Sichuan, China. Many teachers in this region lost loved ones in the 2008 Sichuan earthquake, so the task of educating them about such events was a sensitive one. Having been asked to do that by Teachers Without Borders, Solmaz focussed on making her assistance as sustainable as possible: she chose four dedicated geography teachers who she worked with over a year to build and implement an education programme about earthquakes and school safety. This is far better than a fly-in-fly-out approach, which has a much smaller impact. The involvement of local teachers means the education will continue in Solmaz’s absence, and that language and cultural barriers will no longer be a problem.

Returning to her own heritage, Solmaz has recently set up an organisation called ParsQuake (www.parsquake.org). ParsQuake’s mission is to raise levels of earthquake awareness, education, and preparedness in Persian-speaking schools and communities around the world. Through its website, ParsQuake provides education materials in Farsi, Tajik, Russian and English, and its members conduct training sessions in which the trainees eventually become the trainers. The theme of sustainability is clear, and Solmaz has future hopes of an earthquake education workshop in India, to be run by the trainees from Tajikistan and Afghanistan.

Ye Zhiping

Personally, I found this to be a very inspiring seminar. We hear all too often about the tragedies that result from natural disasters, but little about the wonderful people who are helping to save lives through education and action. Solmaz is one of those people, spreading her knowledge and love of geophysics to those who need it most. One of the stories that she shared at the seminar was of another such person in Sichuan, China. Appalled by the poor construction of his school, Ye Zhiping (right), the principal of Sangzao Middle School, raised over $60,000 for an earthquake retrofit project. The school subsequently survived a magnitude 8 earthquake in 2008 which killed about 10,000 children in classrooms around the region. All 2,323 of Ye’s students survived. This is an excellent example of how a little awareness and perseverance can help to avert tragedy. The message of Solmaz’s talk was clear: we have no excuse not to share our knowledge, especially when a lack of knowledge can have such a high cost.

Friday Photo (12) - Seismogram of M6.6 Earthquake, Western Xizang, China (25th August 2008)

SEISMOGRAM - M6.6 WESTERN XIZANG, AUGUST 2008 
A screenshot of a seismogram from the M6.6 earthquake in Western Xizang, China (August 2008). The sesimometer from which the above image was captured is part of the British Geological Survey's School Seismometer program, and was installed by the Sedgwick Museum of Earth Sciences, Cambridge, UK.

M7.2 Earthquake Eastern Turkey (2)

The Earthquake Report have produced a helpful analysis and discussion of various aspects of the earthquake in eastern Turkey. The report written by the Centre for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) estimates the final death toll to be between 700-1000 people, and economic losses of US$ 500-1000million. Read the full article here... 

M7.2 Earthquake Eastern Turkey

Yesterday a Magniude 7.2 earhquake struck eastern Turkey, close to the Iranian border. Latest reports suggest about 200 dead, with that figure expected to rise ove the coming days. Many more people are injured and homeless, with the BBC reporting tens of thousands sleeping oudoors in freezing conditions. The Guardian reports that one hospital was significantly damaged, which will no doubt add to what is already a difficult rescue and recovery operation. They also report the difficulties in reaching more rural communities where damage is also expected to be high.

It is difficult to assess at this stage what secondary impacts of the earthquake there will be, in terms of landslides, fires and other triggered phenomena. The vulnerability of the communities in the region is significantly greater than it was prior to the earthquake, and aftershocks and other hazards (cold weather being a notable one) could lead to what is already a vey bad situation becoming much worse.

A comprehensive summary of the technical aspects of the earthquake, including details of the magnitude, location and earthquake history of Turkey can be found on the USGS website. Turkey is particularly vulnerable to large earthquakes, with many large cities close to major geological fault lines. Further information, updates and analysis will be posted on this blog as and when more news is available.

Can Earthquakes Trigger Volcanic Eruptions?

Scientists from the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) Hawaiian Volcano Observatory have written an excellent article about the relationship between earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Due to the fact that both volcanoes and active faulting occur on plate boundaries, these are closely related processes. Simply put, earthquakes change the stress field in the area in which they occur. These changes in the stress field can change the stress balance around magma chambers - bringing them closer to an eruption. Both the fields of seismology and volcanology are complex processes however, and therefore the interactions between these two systems are also complicated.

One reflection from reading this article, is the importance of understanding and incorporating the interaction of hazards within natural hazard risk assessments. If people have been affected by a large earthquake they will be more vulnerable to a volcanic eruption than if there had been no earthquake. Their properties may have been damaged, giving them less protection from ash, blocks of rock etc - and roads used as emergency escape routes may also have been damaged. This again highlights the importance of a holistic, multi-hazard approach to natural hazard analysis. 

Read the full article for more information.

Earthquake in the Himalayas

An earthquake (M6.9) struck the Himalayas yesterday, impacting areas of India, Nepal, Tibet and Bhutan. Dave Petley has written two helpful blogs on his 'Landslide Blog' site that give a good insight into the geology and impacts of this earthquake. One thing he discusses is the added effect of landslides following the earthquake. As the earthquake hit at the end of the monsoon season, the ground is already quite saturated promoting ground instability, and further wet weather is due.

L'Aquila Earthquake (2009) - The Trial Begins...

As reported a while ago, a number of scientists are to face trial in Italy for failing to correctly evaluate the risk of the L'Aquila earthquake in Italy (2009) and communicate this to the public. They are to be charged with manslaughter. The L'Aquila earthquake, measuring 6.3 on the Moment Magnitude scale, and killing over three hundred people was Italy's deadliest quake in recent times. 

This week their trial begins, and many scientists involved in hazard assessment will be watching with a keen interest and much anticipation. BBC Newsnight have produced an article discussing the trial and there is also an interesting article on Nature News by Willy Aspinall, former chief scientist at the Montserrat Volcano Observatory in the Caribbean. He highlights one of the main dangers of this trial - that experienced, knowledgeable and professionals in the field will be much more reluctant to give advice shaping policy and decisions then before - essentially making life even more difficult for town planners etc.

As the trial progresses we will continue to report the latest developments.

The Politics of Earthquakes

Let me draw your attention to a very interesting and thought-provoking article published by The Los Angeles Times, and written by Claire Berlinksi. The article, The Politics of Earthquakes, outlines how corruption, law enforcement and politics can significantly influence the impact of an earthquake on a major urban area. As Berlinksi writes, "seismic risk mitigation is the greatest urban policy challenge the world confronts today."

The article highlights the huge seismic risk to many of the world's largest cities - cities such as Tehran, Istanbul, Lima, Islamabad, Mexico City and Kathmandu. Cities which are undergoing rapid (and often uncontrolled) urbanisation. It is often stated that the way to reduce risk in these cities is to promote economic development - seismic-proofing a city costs money, and thus is not a possibility for less economically developed countries. 

However, the article points out the vast differences between Turkey and Chile - with similar GDP per capita. A massive M8.8 earthquake struck Chile in 2010, outside the city of Concepcion, leaving 521 dead. While any death toll is tragic, Chile's commendable preparedness and enforcement of building standards meant this was not significantly higher. Berlinkski, however reports that the situation in Turkey is very different. Despite their GDP per capita being very similar, preparedness is not at the same level. There is neither the same structural soundness of buildings, enforcement of building regulations or public awareness campaigns.

Reducing the impacts of earthquakes and other hazards, therefore, is not simply a case of economic development. There is also a huge need to tackle corruption, have good urban planning, enforce building regulation and lead better preparedness campaigns. There is a big responsibility on (a) national and regional governments to enforce regulation and coordinate preparedness measures, (b) international governments to lobby those countries at risk and promote safe urban expansion and disaster risk reduction, (c) local communities to respond willingly and effectively to government measures, not to encourage corruption and to take responsibility for preparing their household.

Earthquake Risk: Central Asia

Central Asia (Source: Wikipedia)

This week a Magnitude 6.1 earthquake struck the Ferghana Valley region of Central Asia, killing 13 people in Uzbekistan and injuring many others. Areas in neighbouring Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan also reported damage. The Ferghana Valley region is one of the most densely populated regions of Central Asia, and one of the most seismically active regions in the world. This combination of seismic hazard and dense population means there is a significant risk of a serious disaster in this area. Historically there have been significant earthquakes in most of the Central Asian nation's capital cities - causing significant damage and leaving many homeless.

The extent of any future disaster will depend on the vulnerability of communities. For example in 2010 large earthquakes struck both Haiti and Chile - and yet the death toll in Chile was substantially lower than in Haiti (despite the Chilean earthquake being significantly stronger). This was as a result of high vulnerability in Haiti compared to Chile, which is much better prepared for earthquakes, has better response mechanisms in place and better quality of buildings. Vulnerability in many cities in Central Asia is high - with dense population, poor earthquake education, poor governmental response mechanisms and low building standards. When this is coupled with the serious probability of hazard in the area (an estimate stated in 1996 suggested there was a 40% chance that a Magnitude 9.0 earthquake will hit Central Asia within 20 years) this area must be a priority area for disaster risk reduction programmes. 

Sarez Lake (Source: Wikipedia)

In addition to the risk to large cities in the region, there is also the possibility of a major multi-hazard event in the border regions/Ferghana Valley. If an earthquake were to cause failure of the landslide formed Sarez Lake - it could lead to catastrophic flooding in the terrain immediately below the lake. This series of events could significantly effect millions of people.

Possible Action?

There is an urgent need for a widespread disaster risk reduction programme in this region. There should be political engagement at the national and regional level, and a building up of the institutional capacity of country's disaster response and preparedness departments (including an examination of insurance against disaster). There should be a strengthening of public education, through the engagement of civil society organisations, the school system and national advertising campaigns. In the long-term there should be a major review of construction quality in the region to reduce the impacts of disasters. 

Further Reading

- UNISDR - Mitigating the Adverse Financial Effects of Natural Hazards on the Economies of Central Asia

- UNISDR - Central Asia & Caucasus Disaster Risk Management Initiative (Some good profiles on individual countries, as well as a look at cross-border issues) 

- UNISDR - A guide to community based disaster risk reduction in Central Asia (English & Russian)

Case Study: A Tale of Two Cities...

How can two earthquakes of the same magnitude hit two different countries, resulting in two very different situations? Although no two earthquakes are identical - with some parameters differing and thus making them difficult to contrast - this case study highlights a crucial reminder of the vulnerability to natural hazards in the developing world:

Case Study 1: Northridge, California, United States of America 

Sitting adjacent to the San Andreas Fault, a location on the earth where two tectonic plates are sliding past each other, the state of California is prone to earthquakes. However, there are also a number of other faults, including reverse and thrust faults, in this area which have caused significant earthquakes throughout recent history. 

On the 17th January 1994, an earthquake with Moment Magnitude 6.7 struck the Southern Coast of California, close to Los Angeles. The Northridge earthquake occurred in the early hours of the morning meaning that many people were still asleep and indoors. The earthquake caused an unusually strong ground acceleration which resulted in significant damage and became one of the costliest disasters in the history of the USA. The earthquake resulted in 57 people killed, and over 5000 injured. The earthquake occurred relatively close to densely populated areas (compared to the 2003 San Simeon Earthquake, for example, which killed 2 people). Although California had strict building codes some buildings and roads collapsed. Landslides also occurred, fires broke out and there was also an outbreak of the disease Valley Fever. 

Case Study 2: Bam, Iran  

The city of Bam, in the Islamic Republic of Iran suffered a devastating earthquake in 2003. Iran is part of the Arabian Plate, which moves northwards into the Eurasian Plate. This tectonic activity means Iran is prone to large earthquakes.

On the 26th December 2003, an earthquake with Moment Magnitude 6.6 occurred at a depth of around 10km. This earthquake also occurred in the early hours of the morning, meaning many people were indoors and asleep. Fatalities of this earthquake totaled 26,271 and casualties around 30,000. The city, primarily composed of mud-brick building, was devastated in the earthquake. Large amounts of the city did not comply with earthquake regulations set out in the country, which meant that many buildings failed. 

DISCUSSION

The differences between the two earthquakes are stark, they were similar in size and other factors and yet the Bam earthquake killed 460 times more people than the Northridge earthquake. There were a number of factors which led to this contrast, and the immense vulnerability of the people in Iran.

(1) Adherence to Building Standards

As mentioned above, there are strict building codes in place in California. These were reviewed and updated following the earthquake in Northridge. In Bam, however, the building codes existed but were not adhered to in many cases. Poverty meant that many people built their own houses, or used local builders. This resulted in little notice of national regulations and hence buildings collapsing and many people being buried beneath rubble. It was estimated that around 75% of all buildings in Bam were completely destroyed, and 85-90% of all buildings and infrastructure being damaged or destroyed.  

(2) Urban Planning

Urban planning is also linked to vulnerability. Southern California was developed in a methodical and structured way, whereas Bam did not have this methodical urban planning. Lack of urban planning increases vulnerability as the infrastructure can not be designed to withstand earthquakes, escape routes can not be put into place, and detailed geotechnical analyses of soil types can not be undertaken to ensure areas of ground that are particular vulnerable are avoided.

(3) Education

Even though both California and Iran are prone to earthquakes, the differences in education about earthquakes again contrast hugely. In California people were much more aware of what was happening and how to respond. In Bam, there was very little education with many people holding traditional religious views about earthquakes - views described as poisonous by one Tehran based Geophysics Professor. A lack of understanding about the dynamics of earthquakes and how to respond can significantly increase vulnerability to a hazard.

CONCLUSION

According to the CIA figures for 2003 Iran is ranked 97th in a list of countries of GDP per Capita, compared to the USA at 2nd. This differences in their economic development meant there was less money to invest in infrastructure, development and education.    

Vulnerability existed in both Iran and the USA, leading to tragic disasters that impacted people in both countries. In Iran however, the human cost of the disaster was 460 times higher than California as a result of increased vulnerability. The impacts of good urban planning, good structural and earthquake engineering and good education are evident. 

Earthquake Prediction and Disaster Risk Reduction

Exposed Fault Line (Greece)

After 'what type of rock is this?' the question I probably get asked most as a geologist is 'can we or will we ever be able to predict earthquakes?' Accurate earthquake prediction is considered one of the 'holy grails' of the geosciences. It remains elusive however, and is likely to be elusive for the foreseeable future.

Earthquakes are triggered when stress builds up on these fault lines, as the stress overcomes a critical value the fault ruptures, releasing this stress (or transferring it to other parts of the fault). This release of stress generates seismic waves which shake the ground. Earthquakes cause considerable damage and loss of life across the globe - seen recently in places as diverse as Spain, Japan, New Zealand, Burma, Chile and Haiti. 

Major Plate Boundaries

Geoscientists have a good idea of roughly where earthquakes are likely to happen (although new fault lines are still being discovered). They have an indication of the maximum magnitude we can expect in certain places (though again, there can be surprises, such as the March 2011 earthquake in Japan). Studies of palaeoseismology (historical earthquakes) can also give us an indication of what time frames to expect between large earthquakes. Despite this knowledge and ability to understand these factors - geoscientists have no way to predict exactly when, where and how big a particular earthquake will be. 

Research is examining possible methods of earthquake prediction, including study of animal behaviour and study of electrical disturbances in our atmosphere. This research is a long way away, however, from giving us the vital information we need for earthquake prediction, and current opinion remains uncertain as to whether it will eventually help. 

Bendandi (Source: Luca Lorenzi)

Despite geologists stating that earthquake prediction is a distant dream - predictions are occasionally mentioned, such as the May 11th 2011 Rome earthquake. Rumours had circulated that a dead seismologist (Raffaele Bendandi, pictured left) had predicted that the city would be destroyed on this date. Rumours which caused widespread panic and thousands to stay away from the city. This situation highlights something that isn't talked about very much - the potential dangers of earthquake prediction. Currently earthquake prediction (with precise days and times etc) mainly causes unfounded panic and distress. It damages economies, and has the potential to lead to people not paying attention to genuine warnings and evacuation orders. Even if we do get into a situation where we can predict earthquakes using scientific monitoring techniques, there is of course the potential that those predictions will be wrong. The potential for panic, damage and reluctance to pay attention to genuine warnings means that distributing these warnings must be carefully considered. Earthquake prediction also places a huge burden on local, national and international governments to ensure they can manage and finance evacuations, as well as effectively mobilising communities. While this isn't a danger to, or reason not to predict - it does mean international governments and agencies must be ready to step in and support struggling countries.

Finally, while we cannot (and may not ever) predict earthquakes in the sense of specific location, magnitude and time - we do have a wealth of scientific and technical knowledge about how earthquakes behave, how soils and rock respond to seismic waves, how buildings respond... not to mention many locations prone to earthquakes, and significant historical records giving us an indication of time intervals and magnitude of earthquakes. The huge amounts of scientific data and technical knowledge we have means that we can develop effective disaster risk reduction methods. Earthquakes, and other natural hazards, only become natural disasters when there is risk and vulnerability. If this vulnerability can be reduced, and resilience increased then the impacts of hazards such as earthquakes will be dramatically reduced. The types of things that can be implemented to ensure risk is reduced are things such as changes to urban planning - ensuring that cities are built with stricter building codes, more organisation and planning, and better assigned routes for evacuation and emergency vehicles. This is particularly important in developing countries, where rapid urbanisation in vulnerable areas could lead to potential mega-disasters. Other things such as education and drills, ensuring that people know what to do and how to do it, is crucial. This can be particularly important in institutions such as schools and health centres.

So while earthquake prediction is widely considered the 'holy grail' of the geosciences - we mustn't deflect from the importance of what we can already do. We have the ability to significantly reduce the impacts of disasters - and must work to ensure disaster risk reduction is incorporated into policy, well financed and given our full backing.   

Read more:

BBC Article - Earthquake Prediction

Geology for Global Development - Key Themes: Geohazards